Popper’s Deductive Method and Kilduff’s Publishing Theory

The following is a summary for readings undertaken in my OB seminar this afternoon. It is a formal essay submitted for discussions and circulated among the other three PhD students before my posting here in my blog. Should you find any errors, mistakes and/or ideas that discomfort you, don’t be hesitated to drop me a few lines.

Popper’s Deductive Method and Kilduff’s Publishing Theory

To justify inductive inferences, a principle of induction needs to be established. While this principle on a higher level seems to be improbable to some extent, and Popper doesn’t say what this principle is, he does give his own idea on induction as science and everyday life can proceed without using induction. Popper’s method is purely deductive, very strictly following the process of inductive inference and arguing from negative singular to negative universal statement, thus Popper steps further on that verified predictions are “no reason to believe the hypothesis is true or even probable”. Popper also believes that scientific theories can be supported by the evidence, but even with evidence support, theories may not be scientific, thus he argues an acceptable theory in empirical science must conform to three requirements: 1) the theory cannot be judged true of false only by its meaning; 2) the theory can be contradicted by observation; and 3) they theory is corroborated and has passed all its tests.

The importance of Popper’s deductive method is that he points out the weakness of the widely employed inductive methods as we have to regard a universal statement as true from our experience and cannot always find the ultimate highest level of the principle. His method of deductive inference is purely logical and he indicates how people can judge a hypothesis, not by verified predictions even though it may seem to increase the probability. Popper’s requirements of a true theory give us an easy but succinct way to judge its acceptability.

Kilduff’s publishing theory is mainly a guide for people who are interested in publishing in AMR, but his extrapolation means much for starters as well as for veterans as the topic covers theory value enhancement and common mistakes people have been making in submission of papers.

Kilduff argues a good theory paper requires “nurturing, development, and revision before submission”. He suggests ways of a careful development process including 1) offering big ideas, 2) structuring original ideas, and 3) revision to “sharpen the clarity, logic, vividness, precision, succinctness, and surprise of your writing”.

The importance of this article lies in the following aspects. First, it tells the process of all stages that a good and acceptable paper should go through (initial inspiration, discussion with colleagues, formal discussion, critiques from experts and conferences, and submission, and perhaps revision at the next circle) so that people will know how to follow step by step. Second, it explains the importance of each stage and how to complete these stages, for example, the importance of an abstract. Third, this article also lists five major cautions to help avoid rejection at the final phase of publication, which is meaningful to even successful submitters.

Popper and Kilduff both talk about theory development. Popper indicates the false point in developing a good theory, i.e., by using inductive method, proposes his own of deductive method, and finalize by raising examples to help clarify misunderstandings. Kilduff gives recommendations before pointing out major but common mistakes in the process of developing theories and submission. If combined, the two articles show the whole process of doing research.

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洋插队——重走父辈之路

申请到了MSU的博士项目,过程艰辛不必再说,个中辛酸无须回味,总之,在美国中部时间27日凌晨抵达了星城,开始求学之旅。因住宿问题、注册问题、生活准备等各方面问题的繁杂与难料,至这一刻我也无法静下来以闲静的心态去仔细的写一篇日志,以回顾短短这几天的经历。

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新网互联域名转出受阻投诉信

Dear Sirs,

I am the domain owner of BIZEDU.NET. Recently I decided to transfer my domain to GoDaddy.com, INC. only to find that the transfer endeavor was more than difficult due to some unfriendly business behaviors from the losing registrar, BEIJING INNOVATIVE LINKAGE TECHNOLOGY LTD. What this business entity has done frustrated me this morning by its email reply declining my request to transfer my domain as well as by its previous promise (which obviously contradicts to the declining email) made via phone communications about one week ago. BEIJING INNOVATIVE LINKAGE TECHNOLOGY’s ignorance of customers’ rights and benefits constitutes a dangerous challenge towards ICANN’s policy and philosophy.

I write this complaint to report the following perceived misconduct by BEIJING INNOVATIVE LINKAGE TECHNOLOGY LTD. in the hope that ICANN/InterNIC could examine the whole issue and help me complete the transfer currently denied by BEIJING INNOVATIVE LINKAGE TECHNOLOGY LTD. with unreasonable excuses.

1. I decided to transfer my domain to GoDaddy.com, INC a week ago, so I contacted one of BEIJING INNOVATIVE LINKAGE TECHNOLOGY’s agent who told me to download an official application form, fill it out and send directly to it Beijing Headquarters with a hard copy of my personal photo ID. I sent the package on November 10, 2010 to its Beijing office but I later heard that ICANN does not require a domain owner to present the application form or individual’s personal photo ID. Also, according to relevant laws and regulations on the mainland of China, these business entities do NOT have the right to retain citizen’s photo ID which can be improperly used and incur unpredicted risks towards individuals. Since BEIJING INNOVATIVE LINKAGE TECHNOLOGY LTD. is in cooperation with ICANN/InterNIC, I was wondering if ICANN could explain the necessity of this photo ID copy submission requirement.

2. In my previous consulting phone call to BEIJING INNOVATIVE LINKAGE TECHNOLOGY LTD., its staff member gave me instructions on how to fill out the application form. She told me that (1)I should add my signature to show my approval (which I did exactly as told), (2)the company will contact the agent to provide an official seal to complete the rest procedures, and (3)I just wait for the transfer (Oh, yes, I am now still waiting).

I have done what were told one week ago but today’s declining email from BEIJING INNOVATIVE LINKAGE TECHNOLOGY showed clearly its reasons as quoted below:
A. my signature is not beautiful/recognizable; B. transfer application form does not contain their agent’s seal; and C. the application form is NOT qualified.

I felt angry because I was misled by the company’s previous instructions and by its inconsistent and even contradictive email reply. The purpose of the signature is to verify my approval of the transfer rather than to be read as letters in a child’s textbook. No banks or government agencies ever scolded me for my signature even if it is really ugly! The signature is manually signed, and should not be typed by machines. My carefully signed signature should NOT be discriminated anyway.

I obeyed its instructions to send the application package but they seemed to deliberately ‘forget’ the agent’s seal. According the phone call a week ago, the company will contact its agent for that seal but now the company said I did not provide the seal. I am NOT the agent so how could I provide something that should have been provided and presented ONLY by BEIJING INNOVATIVE LINKAGE TECHNOLOGY LTD. itself? As ICANN’s partner, BEIJING INNOVATIVE LINKAGE TECHNOLOGY is misleading its customers and on purpose creating troubles for customers. I don’t think such unethical behavior should be endured by ICANN/InterNIC.

I also cannot see what a qualified application form is. That form is downloaded from BEIJING INNOVATIVE LINKAGE TECHNOLOGY’s official website at this URL with its logo and predesigned tables. If such a copy is denied by the company as not qualified, then where can I obtain a qualified form? Not mentioning ICANN does NOT require such a so-called application form, whose purpose as I personally believe is to ultimately cause frustration of customers and thus block the FREE transfer of personal properties originally protected by ICANN’s policy.

To sum it up, I think BEIJING INNOVATIVE LINKAGE TECHNOLOGY should first return my copy of personal photo ID to rectify its unreasonable requirement because it is NOT a legitimate organization to do this, and second provide me with my Auth Code so that I can transfer my domain to Godaddy.com, INC as I will.

I attach relevant information below for reference.

简单的分析一下这篇范文:

首先,投诉文开门见山指出域名是域名所有人,即注册商客户的私人财产,但在转移过程中遭到了注册商的无故阻碍,指出这种行为有违ICANN的组织宗旨与政策。西方成熟的国家对于私有财产的保护是相当严格的,因而对新网互联违反商业精神并且以欺骗手段达到目的的违规做法绝不会容忍。

其次,询问ICANN是否可解释有关域名所有人必须提交个人身份证明及涉及隐私信息材料的要求的必须性。由于这项要求在ICANN的相关政策中是不存在的,完全由国内域名注册商制定,因而ICANN对无法解释的商业政策规则方面的内容会相当敏感。

继而对新网互联称域名所有人签名潦草无法辨认的诡辩行为给出反击,并告知ICANN即便是签名潦草甚至难看亦不得受到一家商业机构的歧视。对于合作伙伴歧视消费者的行为,西方成熟经济体制下的公司同样不会容忍,也不敢承担由此带来的后果。

接着回述与新网互联之前的客服沟通记录,指出拒绝信在原则和事实上均与客服的官方指导意见矛盾,从而暴露了公司不诚信的一面,那么这样的战略合作伙伴是否值得ICANN在今后继续考虑合作可能性?换句话说,ICANN怎么会选择这样无商业伦理的公司,与这样的无良公司合作岂非令自己成为一丘之貉吗?为维护这个非营利组织的权威性,ICANN必然不可能轻视中国境内注册商破坏商业伦理的行为。

最后回顾拒绝信中提到所谓的“不合格”问题,澄清该文档模板由新网互联官方下载,以所谓“不合格”为由拒绝客户提出的转移申请是在故意设置障碍,这是对受ICANN政策保护的消费者私人财产的自由转移权的破坏。自由是西方成熟社会中受普遍尊重的个人诉求,而若ICANN无法保护本在其政策覆盖下的消费者自由权益,那将被视为是新网互联对ICANN权威的极大挑战。

投诉信末尾除了列出相关域名的WHOIS信息,还在总结中要求新网互联归还那并不需要的个人身份证复印件。实际上,这份材料是不会被退还的,写在投诉信中,只是为多一个砝码,虽然之后发现其实没有必要(已有的投诉内容已经足够完善)。

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新网域名转出受阻投诉信

Dear Sirs,

I registered my domain MYDOMAIN.COM at XIN NET TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION, China. I am totally confused by this company’s service and I want to transfer my domain to GODADDY.COM, INC.

I can not find any place on their website to get my Auth-Info code to process my transfer. After I have phoned them dozens of times, the issue has not yet been dealt with. This complaint letter is made after I have done the following steps:

1. They told me in the first time phone call that a hard copy of my official personal photo ID plus an application form be required. I think this unreasonable request is absurd as I can not believe that a domain transfer operation would not be without a hard copy of my ID card which contains a lot of my privacy info. May I ask if this requirement raised by ICANN/InterNIC’s partner is against ICANN policy or law?

2. I have asked one of their agents for help and to obtain my Auth-Info code on Nov. 9, 2010. He did that (as he told me), retrieving my Auth-Info code online from XIN NET TECH CORP’s website but unsuccessfully because I could not find the code email in my mailbox. To solve this problem, I phoned XIN NET TECH CORP’s customer services department and got an astonishing reply saying that my failure of receiving the Auth-Info code was a result of their company’s slow and old computer system. I am asking one question: as an owner of my own domain, do I have the right of entire control over my personal property without being told of such a unbelievable excuse that the computer system is slow so that the customer cannot get the Auth-Info code email?

3. I did not get any Auth-Info code, so I phoned again, providing them with my new mailbox (from the original edu-suffix email to a hotmail email) as required and as suggested by XIN NET TECH CORP. This time they still told me that I had to wait because their tech persons were busy. I waited. The next day, no Auth-Info code again! I went on phoning them. This time, one of their customer service staff told me that she was retrieving my code for me. I was happy but after 30 minutes I got nothing. I phoned again and again and these customer service staff just avoided direct contact with me by telling me to find someone else to ask for help. I was baffled as who in this company was the one that can solve an old customer’s problem which should not have been a problem? Are they deliberately avoiding their responsibility and commitment to be ethical business partner of InterNIC/ICANN? I found from their inconsistent replies that they have been misleading me, if not lying to me deliberately, and the purpose of this misconduct has been infringing my right as a domain owner. This is also something that could ultimately taint ICANN/InterNIC’s public image.

4. I phoned on Nov. 11 afternoon, and they kept telling me that they were not able to handle my issue and told me to wait. I don’t want to wait after dozens of long-distant phone calls, unhandled customer requests via their official website and email communications which produce nothing but disappointment and lessened confidence towards domain registration industry.

As a responsible industry leader and ethical organization, ICANN/InterNIC may lend an arm to me and help examine this issue. Please help me get my Auth-Info code from them to facilitate the domain transfer to GODADDY.COM, INC.

My domain info is listed below(以下填写域名的WHOIS信息,可至Who.is查询)

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狗他爹:米农的希望!

本博文用网易论坛上被蔑为“美分党”的常用口号(美利坚,人类的希望)为标题,记述一段2010年11月初开始的墙内某小网站站长的亲历故事。

  • 狗他爹:无骂人的意思,名糙了,但属亲切语,其名指GoDaddy.com, INC.,一家总部位于美国的世界著名域名注册商。
  • 米农:米援引自“玉米”,非李宇春的粉丝,而是指域名(玉米是域名的谐音);“农”字来源未考证到,但猜想是与中国大陆被域名注册机构压迫的域名持有人的地位相关。

好了,故事开始……

六年半以前,在上海神话科技公司注册过一个域名,后被这家无良的公司私自篡改了域名指向及管理密码,其间长途电话不断却未解决问题。那次听说可向域名管理机构提出申诉,但以为国际级机构天高衙门深,会比本土官僚们更混帐,于是转而寻网友从私下“偷”回了本属于自己的东西。

几年过去了,国内的官僚体系没有一点从良的迹象,反倒是无赖的作为越来越甚,个人站长的生存环境可以用“(域)名不聊生”四字来形容。国内技术和投资移民的大把,米农移名(转移域名)的更是络绎不绝(仅限于国际顶级域名,至于.CN的基本上从注册持有数量骤变可看出个人站长和米农的绝望和失望的程度了)。也许我还算不得一个无药可救的脑残份子,因此在11月初正式向代理商提出了域名转移至境外的要求。代理商比较勉强,但还是同意了:一个新网科技的注册域名可由他在线获取域名转移码,另一个新网互联的注册域名则需要我向北京总部提交申请书和身份证明材料。我照做了,11月10日通过圆通快递邮出相应的材料。

新网的转出

代理商告诉我他进行了转移码的获取操作,但我的.EDU邮箱却未收取到,甚感奇怪,在要求他再次获取这串代表着我本人作为域名所有人权利的字符串后,被告知操作已经列在队列中,无法进行,且必须七天后方可再次获取。七天?很奇怪的一个要求。我打电话给新网的24×7客服热线(010-58022233),得到的回应更是离奇。这些回应中有的说转移码尚未发出,是电脑系统过于陈旧的问题;转移码是由电脑自动发出,但人工审核过程很长;技术人员很忙,尚无法处理在队列中的转移申请;我的域名管理邮箱有问题,需要更换;新网的邮件域名被网易、微软等从网关处屏蔽,因而即使在垃圾邮件目录中也不可能看到……撒谎到了炉火纯青的地步也许对客服是件颇有成就感的事,但对客户而言,则不是一件可以被容忍的事,尤其当客户发现无论是长途电话、公司的后台会员区留言、电子邮件等都解决不了问题,且当月的长途电话费超支的时候。事后,当我得知这一切都是新网的手段时,我唯有祝愿这类无良企业早早超生。

你不给我个说法,那么就让我来处理不公!在网上查找一些关键字,很容易找到国内多数域名注册商的行业潜规则——通过限制甚至是损害用户的权利达到商业私利,最突出的就是限制域名注册用户的注册商转移,有些甚至会编造荒唐理由和国家法规!网络时代,有不少东西早便是透明的了,海外注册商的做法与国内的对比,一个是天堂,一个是黑狱,这样的差距导致早有一批先行者探索到了针对国内黑心注册商的反击手段,那就是直接向ICANN投诉!

六年前幼稚无知,没有采用正确的正式的做法,现在面对压迫,终于逼上梁山。ICANN的在线投诉地址是http://reports.internic.net/cgi/registrars/problem-report.cgi,在线提交表单的具体过程就不再多述,只是要说一个小技巧。如果提交表单时发现系统提示该域名的有关投诉在上周已经提交过,那么可在域名前加WWW.,即WWW.DOMAIN.COM这样的形式。当晚投诉完便静待,以为一两天内不会有动静,哪知第二天(16号)上午便从代理商处得知新网已经收到ICANN的警告信(新网比较卑鄙,挑拨说我投诉的是代理商,好在我手头存有投诉信副本),之后便先后收到了域名转移码和admin1@xinnet.com的事务处理邮件。根据该邮件,正常情况下应当是先收到来自admin1@xinnet.com的处理函,回复确认后才会由zhuanchu@xinnet.com这个邮箱发送转移码,但似乎新网已经乱了手脚。

有了转移码,问题就简单的多了。直接到GoDaddy.com进行转入操作,按提示一步一步来,六天后(22号)的下午收到GoDaddy.com的通知邮件,域名已经正式入驻!在登入控制面板进行一些细微调整之后,这个域名终于有了富丽堂皇的新家。

新网互联的转出

在对新网投诉起效的时候,新网互联却发来了邮件,义正词严的拒绝了我的转出申请,原信读起来似乎如机器生成的一般。我未再加关注,在有了前一次成功的经验后,根据当时的情况很快的写了一封投诉信,在ICANN的网站(http://InterNIC.org)上填完提交了。

转移申请表所有者和经办人签字太草,字迹无法识别!
转移申请表无代理公章
资料不合格,无法办理转移!

这次我的等待并没有ICANN的官方下文,因为投诉次日即收到新网互联的另一封工作邮件,该邮件语气温和礼貌了许多,且主动抄送到了代理商的邮箱。看来发送给我这封邮件的目的无非是找个台阶下。那么我也不再纠缠,根据新网互联随后发来的转移码激活邮件中的提示操作,获取了转移码并再登录到GoDaddy.com进行转移操作。同样又是六天,这一个域名也成功“搬迁”。

转移申请表无代理公章,请联系您的代理商,让代理用业务联系邮箱[此处为代理商的业务邮箱]给我处发信 确认此域名转移事宜 谢谢!
如有问题直接回复此邮箱即可!谢谢!

成功经历并非完全可以复制,有些网友曾透露过给ICANN的投诉信件如石沉大海,更多的网友则因英文写作能力而无法直接向ICANN投诉,因此在域名转移问题上倍受牵制。写一封有效的投诉信,除了英文过关,还要注意在投诉文中表达清以下几点:

  1. 为转移自己的域名做了哪些工作(体现了域名所有人的权利);
  2. 遇到什么挫折(表现为权利受到压制);
  3. 自己的不快经历带来了哪些负面影响(这个是发挥,但要切中要害,可参考我的投诉信范文);

艰难的转移也参考了网上其它网友的文章,在此列出,本文存在的不详细之处,可以浏览以下链接:

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开放式课程的盛筵:网易入局

本以为历经CORE和OOPS的数年挣扎,这道菜已经显凉,但今儿上午偶尔在网易浏览新闻时,撞见这样一条消息,称网易斥资百万启动全球名校视频公开课公益项目,更是列出了专门的频道。看着专门频道上的课程列表,我很诧异,网易这样的一家境外上市公司怎么突然如此快速的对公开课程感起兴趣来了?

下午回家后,从几处常去的网站上了解到了更多的信息。因目前部分消息尚无公开媒体的确认报导,那么我也仅在此写一些私人的观点罢。

昨天
约十年前,麻省理工学院开启了开放式课程的大门。六年前,台湾的OOPS与大陆的CORE开始翻译引入麻省理工的课程,随后以此为基础,扩大其范围以包括斯坦福、哈佛、耶鲁等名校的公开课程。最近一两年,译言网等草根站开始涉入该领域,将商业化运作与P2P模式引进对开放式课程的翻译中来,之后,在字幕翻译领域内具有一定影响力的人人网、TLF和VeryCD网站均开始提供整合了字幕的视频文件,其中人人网的梁良还与OOPS的朱学恒建立了一定的联系。至此,应当是开放式课程在大陆甚至华人地区的一个发展稳定期,我曾在某篇博文中提及由草根型的群众专业人士来做这件事的意义和优势,它最大限度的发动了群众力量,做到了知识从群众中来,到群众中去。这样的一种模式,将会和OOPS的互补,成为即有分布式运作、又有P2P互助的特点,完全胜于CORE的金字塔型集权模式,也是最符合开放式课程原旨精神的。

今天
网易公开课网站的初衷可能并未在媒体宣传中显露出来,至少从其副总编辑张锐接受采访的言辞中看不到(其称“项目完全公益”、“加速信息流动、惠及网民”)。作为一家商业网站,自然是在商言商,它并不了解开放式课程的内涵,而只是将其作为一个吸引网民的工具、一个产品差异化的手段,那么,当目的达到之后,网易的公开课网站能否持续下去并越活越好?还是苟延残喘弓藏南山?

至于网易在此事件中的角色,今天TLF及人人网发表的声明(TLF的声明指称网易抹除TLF字幕中有关译者信息并籍此谋利,人人网的声明指出网易对部分课程内容搞收费)很清楚的指出它是为谋商业利益,而违背了开放式课程的创作共享原则,更令众网友误以为这些草根站是要和网易一同商业化并拿开放式课程谋取商业利润。

人人网负责人透露,网易公司对外宣布支付报酬,但实际上却并不支付报酬,而只想着无成本的获得字幕,网易声称合作,但在合同中却又限制字幕组单独发布字幕,甚至要求去掉译者信息(有趣的是网易在这些开放式课程的片头都添加了自己的商业标志)。因而我认为,网易私底下的打算是垄断开放式课程在大陆的市场——很简单,既然要做差异化,当然最好就是我有你无了。

明天
知识的传播与商业产品的传播是不一样的,这不仅体现在传播方式上,更体现在传播者的参与和心态上。从某种意义上说,只有有着一定价值观的传播者才可能令知识的传播达到有效的广度和深度。

两年前,我离开CORE的志愿者队伍,主要原因便是CORE在执行课程引入的过程中价值观出现了背离——北京方面的管理团队公然在官方网站发布0day等一些严重侵权的内容,并希望以此来吸引人气。这样一种类商业化的价值观会毁了组织的发展进程,也使开放式课程的使命遭到玷污。

现在,当看到网易如此风风火火的宣传自己投入百万巨资到这一项公益项目中来时,我预言在两年内,网易的公开课频道就会风光不再,因它不是在做教育,不是在开放,而是在用商业手段为自己谋取利润,而这恰恰是与知识的传播背道而驰的。

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To: 中国邮政——一封来自陌生爷爷的信

孙子们:

你们好!

作为一名曾使用了邮政服务多年的老用户,爷我今天实在是无力老泪纵横了,只有借助洋人的WordPress来码几个Word、Press release一下这无奈可叹的事儿。

最近因工作原因,须往美国两个州投递邮件,考虑到快递收费颇高,就蹬车到本地邮政局发航空邮。邮政员工核查了地址、收取了几十块钱邮资之后,我封好信封交付完就回家安心等待,我被告知邮件约需十天送达。

今天是第八天,大清早我接到了退信——标签上用中文写着一句退信理由:书写格式不正确。显然,邮件根本就没有送出国境(否则退信理由就会是洋文打印的了),只是在境内空耗了八天又转归我手,可这是两封航空邮件啊——中国的飞机需要用八天才能从上海飞出国境?关于此事给我造成的损失不想多谈,更不打算与这披了企业外衣夸夸其谈市场化经营的政府机构抱怨。爷只能略提几个问题,问问我那没被教养好的自称是服务于人民的孙子们。

  1. 邮政员工在核查地址时没有提出问题,录入地址时也没提出问题,那么地址到底哪里写错了格式?难道邮政员工有不同的“接口标准”?
  2. 作为一个在十多年前就成功的通过中国邮政往美国寄发过邮件的非弱智者,相信不至于比邮政普通员工还要差以致于不会书写正确的易辨识的地址。
  3. 在我贴足了邮资、书写了详细的To:以及From:的地址信息,只是在投寄人地址中除P.R.China外还另附了中文的地址后,我不知道这样的地址还有什么书写格式问题以致于投递员(们)识别不了?
  4. 如果地址内容可识别而真是所谓的格式有问题,那么这样的邮件是否是无法投递的?邮政部门收取费用却不能完成服务承诺的原因不是因为没有投递地址、不是因为投递地址难以辨认,而是一个措辞含糊的所谓的格式问题。邮政部门是通过地址的内容投递邮件还是仅能凭格式投递邮件?
  5. 两封投递往不同州地址的航空邮件,耗时八天竟然在同一天被退至我处,只能说明它们根本就未被投递出境,而将两封只在省范围内的邮件返回给投寄者本人需要八天,你让爷情何以堪?

此致

敬礼!

爷爷
西元二零一零年十月十三日

令人无奈及羞愧的是,为了赶时间,我将只能放弃中国邮政去改换门庭被洋人的Fedex剥削了。纳了税却养不出一个健全的、有责任感的孙子(可这孙子却知道把“为人民服务”挂在办公室的墙上),可见初中的政治课本是多么的正确——垄断的危害是多么的巨大,资本主义那自私制度下的企业它是迟早要灭亡。

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